BYU vs. Iowa State Preview: High Stakes in Big 12 and NCAA Tournament Seeding Clash in Ames
BYU enters this matchup as one of the nation’s hottest teams, riding a six-game winning streak with four Quad One victories. Meanwhile, Iowa State is fully healthy, and when at full strength, the Cyclones have been dominant—boasting a 19-1 record with their only loss coming by two points on a neutral court against top-ranked Auburn. Something has to give on Tuesday night in Ames, Iowa.
Beyond the immediate battle, this game has major implications for the Big 12 Tournament. The losing team will be locked into the No. 5 seed and receive only a single bye, while the winner secures at least the No. 4 seed and a double bye in Kansas City.
For Iowa State, a victory would solidify its standing as a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. A BYU win, however, would strengthen its case for a No. 6 seed and potentially even push it into No. 5 seed discussions.
BYU and Iowa State by the Numbers
Iowa State
- KenPom Ranking: 11
- NET Ranking: 9
- AP Rank: 10
- Record: 22-7 (12-6 Big 12)
- Key Wins: Dayton (N), Colorado (N/A/H), Marquette (H), Iowa (A), Baylor (H), Utah (H), Texas Tech (A), Kansas (H), UCF (H), Arizona State (A), TCU (H), Cincinnati (H), Arizona (H)
- Losses: Auburn (N), West Virginia (A), Arizona (A), Kansas State (H), Kansas (A), Houston (A), Oklahoma State (A)
BYU
- KenPom Ranking: 25
- NET Ranking: 26
- AP Rank: 23
- Record: 21-8 (12-6 Big 12)
- Key Wins: NC State (N), Wyoming (N), Arizona State (H/A), Oklahoma State (H), Colorado (A), Cincinnati (H), Baylor (H), UCF (A), West Virginia (A), Kansas State (H), Kansas (H), Arizona (A), West Virginia (H)
- Losses: Ole Miss (N), Providence (A), Houston (A), Texas Tech (H), TCU (A), Utah (A), Arizona (H), Cincinnati (A)
KenPom Prediction: Iowa State 80, BYU 73 — ISU 73% win probability
Projected Point Total: 151.5
Iowa State Overview
The Cyclones have battled injuries throughout the season but remain an elite team when fully intact. After losing on the road to Oklahoma State last Tuesday without their second-leading scorer, Keshon Gilbert, they bounced back Saturday, defeating Arizona by 17 at home with Gilbert back in the lineup. Despite struggling with just six points and seven turnovers, Gilbert’s presence still helped Iowa State control the game.
This year’s Iowa State team resembles last season’s squad but with key differences. While they continue to force turnovers at a high rate, they aren’t as dominant defensively as last year but have improved offensively. In Big 12 play, the Cyclones rank second in KenPom efficiency, trailing only Houston. They force turnovers on 21.2% of defensive possessions—down from 25.1% last season—but remain a disruptive force. A notable vulnerability is their three-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 33.4% from beyond the arc, ranking 10th in the conference. Teams that can break their pressure and space the floor effectively have found success from deep.
Despite being known for defense, Iowa State has offensive weapons as well. The Cyclones rank sixth in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency, fourth in effective field goal percentage, and fourth in three-point shooting at 35.5% in conference play. They aggressively get to the free-throw line, ranking second in free-throw rate, utilizing both their guards and bigs. However, turnovers remain a concern—committing them on 19% of possessions in Big 12 play, which ranks 13th in the conference. For comparison, BYU turns the ball over at a 17.5% rate in league play.
Individually, the Cyclones feature several key returners. Senior guard Curtis Jones leads the team in scoring with 16.8 points per game, attempting nearly seven threes per game and hitting 37% from distance.
Keshon Gilbert, the team’s second-leading scorer at 13.8 points per game, is one of the top slashers in the conference. He takes 74% of his shots inside the arc and averages over four free-throw attempts per game. His backcourt partner, Tamin Lipsey, has seen a dip in shooting numbers but remains a top-tier perimeter defender, averaging over two steals per game for a third consecutive season. His matchup against Egor Demin will be a crucial storyline.
In the frontcourt, 6-foot-8 forward Milan Momcilovic is a sharpshooter, averaging 11 points per game while hitting 41% from three. He played a key role in Iowa State’s win over Arizona, going 4-for-7 from deep.
Iowa State also bolstered its frontcourt through transfers. Josh Jefferson, a 6-foot-9 transfer from Saint Mary’s, has made a significant impact, averaging 12.5 points and leading the team with 7.6 rebounds per game. He isn’t a major three-point threat but has some ability, shooting 31% from beyond the arc. Dishon Jackson, a 6-foot-11, 275-pound transfer from Charlotte, adds size and physicality at the center position. Notably, Jackson was once close to committing to BYU before choosing Iowa State.
Prediction
Iowa State is a strong team, especially when at full health, and they should have all their key players available for this matchup. On Saturday, Arizona struggled from three (4-of-18), allowing Iowa State to control the game with ease. BYU, however, presents challenges that could make this game more competitive. The Cougars excel at generating quality three-point looks, an area where Iowa State has been vulnerable. If Egor Demin and Dallin Hall can handle Iowa State’s defensive pressure and create open shots through extra passes, BYU will have a chance to capitalize from deep. However, if Iowa State forces 15 or more turnovers, they could win comfortably.
BYU’s ability to score off turnovers could also play a crucial role. While the Cougars don’t force a high number of turnovers, they are elite in transition scoring when they do. Against Arizona, BYU converted 14 turnovers into 22 points, an area they could exploit against Iowa State’s sometimes careless ball-handling.
When comparing Iowa State and Arizona, the teams split their regular-season meetings. Iowa State has slightly better offensive depth but lacks a high-volume scorer like Caleb Love, who can take over a game. Both teams feature strong defenses and solid frontcourts but differ in their approaches. Talent-wise, they are closely matched.
Expect a fast-paced contest—Iowa State ranks fifth in tempo, which aligns with BYU’s preferred style of play.
Ultimately, I’m leaning toward Iowa State at home. With their full lineup available, they have enough offensive balance to generate open looks and force turnovers at key moments. If BYU can push the pace and get the game into the 90s, they could have an advantage with their superior three-point shooting.
Prediction: Iowa State 85, BYU 82
- Straight-Up Record: 22-7
- Against the Spread Record: 15-14
- Tracking predictions for every game this season.
